Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 64218.527239 67919.525182 71623.197278 75604.802581 79761.255334 83969.368426 88548.956645
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 58253.400701 63905.964191 69724.261589 76151.694455 83043.836576 90203.323526 98193.576836
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 53686.364816 60630.699348 67939.201662 76185.754383 85212.976711 94775.450994 105651.620534
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 50373.563850 58293.857287 66785.636042 76536.779425 87393.089841 99077.019586 112570.243291
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 47472.227483 56137.257426 65580.910696 76592.730849 89033.903393 102607.747850 118489.259083
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 45659.379843 55035.877255 65403.359650 77655.601359 91675.690573 107153.467375 125466.017854
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 43338.847761 53202.854699 64260.229221 77494.637152 92821.095254 109928.375895 130380.114141
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 42087.718400 52518.433685 64355.015402 78682.051005 95449.668063 114346.766436 137143.419738
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 40727.637824 51622.870137 64131.767183 79434.785472 97523.695516 118095.194129 143122.439067
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 39092.413132 50317.964583 63354.303827 79468.975111 98701.802202 120765.924013 147827.890261
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 37505.599126 48999.665289 62495.966384 79346.315891 99643.251987 123122.207834 152141.793803
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 36772.901969 48684.292359 62808.473348 80598.861350 102202.572339 127375.689895 158698.924515
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 35865.510415 48131.757724 62822.910613 81493.719102 104353.106568 131185.195602 164798.437187
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 34780.800507 47316.768265 62482.129731 81928.279164 105931.402855 134310.822180 170099.297487
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 33557.083496 46279.118210 61824.199549 81934.627944 106958.197969 136756.001541 174578.949139
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 32580.785655 45519.383087 61479.643297 82300.556941 108404.838444 139697.973362 179661.435809
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 31520.586549 44612.282818 60914.527889 82358.607472 109445.678919 142131.167857 184122.656941
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 31004.205562 44392.704936 61205.479409 83484.570808 111812.957412 146195.146162 190598.894529
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 29945.471674 43421.943087 60500.883651 83313.972779 112529.003891 148209.280766 194549.758795
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 29557.749058 43328.013645 60916.933316 84571.963223 115049.774971 152469.994143 201302.564606
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 28997.336030 42981.053276 60986.228716 85369.329141 116978.965744 155996.890871 207159.478004
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 28150.992211 42219.132001 60486.613635 85405.543546 117918.441038 158275.948599 211460.273838
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 27277.514964 41393.069723 59877.479468 85275.617710 118626.113612 160252.527681 215380.308388